Livestock Futures Trading ... General Fundamentals

Throughout the year, the Livestock Futures Almanac provides the reader with insight into the various supply and demand reports issued by the USDA and other sources. This information may help commodity traders and hedgers make more more informed decisions regarding their market operations. However, many fundamental studies require more than one page, so here is a brief sampling of just some of the information provided in the 2001/02 Livestock Trader's Almanac.

For example, each month will have a page devoted to the history of the Cattle on Feed report, such as this one for the month of July:

7 State Cattle On Feed Statistics (Thousand Head)
Year	Placements	On-Feed	Marketings	Other Diss
1992	1,337	6,506	1,535	71
1993	1,415	7,017	1,555	67
1994	1,520	6,910	1,550	39
1995	1,404	7,734	1,698	49
1996	1,483	6,578	1,678	46
1997	1,751	7,679	1,852	42
1998	1,677	7,825	1,755	41
1999	1,565	8,183	1,816	43
2000	1,674	8,959	1,784	37
2001
Based on one thousand head or more feedlots Includes Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas

The Livestock Almanac also helps futures traders and hedger to understand the reoccurring themes of the market, with insightful studies, such as this one showing the average behavior of slaughter rates, so futures traders and hedgers can anticipate changes in the fundamental make-up of the market and make more informed decisions:

Average Slaughter Rate 1991 to 2000

(Percentile Ranking)

Or we will highlight changes on a more macro economic level, such as this graphic showing the changes in per capita consumption of meat:

Per Capita Meat Consumption

(in pounds)

By understanding the basic supply and demand themes and providing the historical benchmark, hopefully traders and hedger can make more informed decisions regarding the Livestock markets. This is why each month, we highlight the general fundamental factors factors which effect the livestock futures markets in the Monthly Fundamental Overviews.

THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. CFEA WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Livestock Futures Trading ... General Fundamentals

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